For example, there is Lazarsfeld's theory with the idea that opinion leaders can be seen as people to whom we attribute a strong trust and maybe even an esteem in relation to the political judgment they may have and therefore, by discussing with these people, it is possible to form an electoral choice and therefore there is no need to go and pay these costs of gathering information. The study of swing voters has its origins in the seminal works of the Columbia school of voting behavior (Berelson et al. One important element of this model must be highlighted in relation to the others. In other words, when we are interested in trying to explain the vote, we must already know what type of voter we are talking about. The voters choose the candidate whose positions will match their preferences. xb```f`` @f8F F'-pWs$I*Xe< *AA[;;8:::X"$C[6#,bH.vdM?2Zr@ ai,L Prospective voting is the one that has been postulated by Downs and by all other researchers who work in proximity models but also in two-way models. There is also a literature on whether certain parties have certain issues, which voters believe are the parties that are better able to deal with a certain issue. Voting represents an important aspect of public participation in a democratic system. The psycho-sociological model initiated the national election studies and created a research paradigm that remains one of the two dominant research paradigms today and ultimately contributed to the creation of electoral psychology. The individual is subjectivity at the centre of the analysis. Fiorina proposed the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates: how can voters know what the position of different parties is during an election campaign? First, they summarize the literature that has been interested in explaining why voters vary or differ in the stability or strength of their partisan identification. The explanatory factors and aspects highlighted by these different models are always taken into account. In the psychological approach, the information problem is circumvented by the idea of the development of partisan identification, which is an emotional shortcut that voters operate. The curve instead of the simple proximity model, or obviously the maximization from the parties' point of view of electoral support, lies in the precise proximity between voters' preferences and the parties' political programs on certain issues, in this case this remains true but with a lag that is determined by discounting from a given status quo. For Iversen, distance is also important. Lazarsfeld was interested in this and simply, empirically, he found that these other factors had less explanatory weight than the factors related to political predisposition and therefore to this social inking. WebVoting Behavior. The Psychology of Voting Research suggests that instilling emotions like gratitude and civic pride may help increase voter turnout. Voters have knowledge of the ideological positions of parties or candidates on one or more ideological dimensions and they use this knowledge to assess the political positions of these parties or candidates on specific issues. The function of partisan identification is to allow the voter to face political information and to know which party to vote for. We end up with a configuration where there is an electorate that is at the centre, there are party activists who are exercising the "voice" and who have access to the extreme, and there are party leaderships that are in between. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. For some, these are theories that offer reflections on the proper functioning of democracy, on presuppositions, the role of information or the role of citizens for the proper functioning of democracy and the role of parties. So there is an overestimation in this model with respect to capacity. Another strategy is the so-called "shortcut" that voters take within the rationalist framework of voting, since they are confronted with the problem of information and have to choose on the basis of this information. The heterogeneity of the electorate and voters must be taken into account. These are possible answers more to justify and account for this anomaly. A distinction must be made between the affective vote of the psycho-sociological model and the cognitive vote of the theories of the economic model. These spatial theories start from the assumption that there is a voter or voters who have political preferences with respect to certain issues, but completely discard the explanation of how these preferences are formed. It is in this sense that the party identification model provides an answer to this criticism that the sociological model does not highlight the mechanisms that make a certain social inking influence a certain electoral choice. The theoretical criticism consists in saying that in this psychosocial approach or in this vision that the psychosocial model has of the role of political issues, the evaluation of these issues is determined by political attitudes and partisan identification. What we see here in relation to the sociological model and that these variables highlighted by the sociological model such as socialization, inking or social position play a role but only indirectly. The reference work is The Peoples Choice published in 1948 by Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet. We are looking at the interaction. Those with a lower sense of It is because we are rational, and if we are rational, rationality means maximizing our usefulness on the basis of the closeness we can have with a party. Therefore, they cannot really situate where the different parties stand. The theory of the economic model of the vote is also a model that allows predictions to be made about party behaviour. Webthe earlier Columbia studies, the Michigan election studies were based upon national survey samples. Elections and voters: a comparative introduction. On this basis, four types of voters can be identified in a simplified manner: It is possible to start from the assumption that the characteristics of these different voters are very different. These are some of the criticisms and limitations often made by proponents of other approaches. We project voters' preferences and political positions, that is, the positions that parties have on certain issues and for the preferences that voters have on certain issues. Downs, Anthony. One of the merits, which can be found in Lazarsfeld's book entitled The People's Choice published in 1944 is that this model marks a turning point in the study of political behaviour. This identification is seen as contributing to an individual's self-image. In this representation, there are factors related to the cleavages, but also other factors that relate to the economic, political or social structure of a country being factors that are far removed from the electoral choice but that still exert an important effect in an indirect way the effect they have on other variables afterwards. There is a small bridge that is made between these two theories with Fiorina on the one hand and the Michigan model of another party that puts the concept of partisan identification at the centre and that conceives of this concept in a very different way, especially with regard to its origin. They find that partisan identification becomes more stable with age, so the older you get, the more partisan identification you have, so it's much easier to change when you're young. LAZARSFELD, PAUL F., BERNARD BERELSON, and HAZEL GAUDET. Originally proposed by political scientists, beginning with an This ensures congruence and proximity between the party and the electorate. To study the expansion of due process rights. A rather subjective and almost sentimental citizen is placed at the centre of the analysis. Reinforcement over time since adult voters increasingly rely on this partisan identification to vote and to face the problems of information, namely partisan identification seen as a way of solving a problem that all voters have, which is how to form an idea and deal with the abundance and complexity of the information that comes to us from, for example, the media, political campaigns or others in relation to the political offer. These theories are the retrospective voting theories and the theories of ideological space. The model integrates several schools of thought that have tried to explain voter behavior; it is tested by predicting the behavior of respondents based on the model, and then validating the results with the actual behavior of the respondents. The idea is that a party is ready to lose an election in order to give itself the means to win it later by giving itself time to form an electorate. On the other hand, women tend to have less stable partisan identification, they change more often too. A Democrat votes for Democratic candidates for all elected offices, and Republicans do the same. This approach has often been criticized as a static approach since socio-economic or even socio-demographic characteristics do not change in the short term and yet the vote increasingly changes in the short term, what is called in electoral volatility, i.e. Merrill, Samuel, and Bernard Grofman. Grofman introduces a central element which is the position of the status quo which is not necessarily the neutral point but the current policy. He wanted to see the role of the media in particular and also the role of opinion leaders and therefore, the influences that certain people can have in the electoral choice. On that basis, voters calculate the utility income of the different parties and then they look at and evaluate the partisan differential. One can draw a kind of parallel with a loss of importance of the strength of partisan identification and also of the explanatory power of partisan identification. On the other hand, the political preferences are exogenous to the political process which is the fact that when the voter goes to vote which is the moment when he or she starts to think about this election, he or she already arrives with certain fixed or prefixed political preferences. Does partisan identification work outside the United States? Curiously, the intensity directional model that adds an element to the simple directional model chronologically precedes the simple directional model. For Fiorina the voter does not do that, he will rather look at what has happened, he will also look at the state of affairs in a country, hence the importance of the economic vote in the narrower sense of the word. There are other theories that highlight the impact of economic conditions and how voters compare different election results in their electoral choices, which refers to economic voting in the strict sense of the term. 2, 1957, pp. It is also possible to add that the weight of partisan identification varies from one voter to another. Certain developments in the theory of the psycho-sociological model have in fact provided answers to these criticisms. A symbol is evaluated on the basis of two parameters, namely direction (1), a symbol gives a certain direction in the policy and in addition a certain intensity (2) which is to what extent is one favourable or unfavourable to a certain policy. One of the answers within spatial theories is based on this criticism that voters are not these cognitively strong beings as the original Downs theory presupposes. Three elements should be noted. Then a second question was supposed to measure the strength of that identification with the question "do you consider yourself a Republican, strong, weak or leaning towards the Democratic Party? New York: Columbia University Press, 1948. There are several responses to criticisms of the proximity model. Inking and the role of socialization cause individuals to form a certain partisan identification that produces certain types of political attitudes. While in the United States, several studies have shown that partisan identification is an important explanatory power on electoral choice, in other contexts this is less true. It is no longer a question of explaining "why" people participate but "how", that is, in terms of voter turnout, what choice is made and what can explain an electoral choice. The influence of friends refers to opinion leaders and circles of friends. Others have criticized this analogy between the economic market and the political market as being a bit simplistic, saying that, basically, the consequences of buying a consumer product have a certain number of consequences, but they are much more limited compared to what buying a vote can have in terms of choosing a party. This task is enormous, and only a modest beginning can be made here. It is possible to create a typology that distinguishes between four approaches crossing two important and crucial elements: "is voting spatial? On the other hand, ideologically extreme voters try to influence party policies through party activism (voice). Print. [15] Then we'll look at the space theories of the vote. So all these elements help to explain the vote and must be taken into account in order to explain the vote. It is easier to look at what someone has done than to evaluate the promises they made. WebIn voting behavior models, these cross-pressures are manifest as (often high-order) interaction terms that are difficult to detect using standard regression-based approaches. In other words, they are voters who are not prepared to pay all these costs and therefore want to reduce or improve the cost-benefit ratio which is the basis of this electoral choice by reducing the costs and the benefit will remain unchanged. Here we see the key factors, namely electoral choice and, at the centre, the identification variable for a party, which depends on two types of factors, namely primary socialization and group membership. Ideology can also be in relation to another dimension, for example between egalitarian and libertarian ideology. The psycho-sociological model can be seen in the light of an explanatory contribution to the idea that social inking is a determining factor in explaining the vote, or at least on a theoretical level. Voters will vote for a party but that party is not necessarily the one with which they identify. This is linked to a decrease in class voting and a loss of traditional cleavages. It is a third explanation given by Przeworski and Sprague in their theory of partisan competition, also known as the theory of mobilization of the electorate. The psycho-sociological model, also known as the Michigan model, can be represented graphically or schematically. Nevertheless, some of these spatial theories depart from this initial formulation. There may be a vote that is different from partisan identification, but in the medium to long term, partisan identification should strengthen. Value orientations refer to materialism as well as post-materialism, among other things, cleavages but no longer from a value perspective. These authors proposed to say that there would be a relationship between the explanatory models of the vote and the cycle of alignment, realignment, misalignment in the sense that the sociological model would be better able to explain the vote in phases of political realignment. Four questions around partisan identification. The relationship between partisan identification and voting is that the model postulates that partisan identification is the explanatory variable and that voting for the electoral choice is the explained variable. In other words, there is the idea of utility maximization which is a key concept in rational choice theory, so the voter wants to maximize his utility and his utility is calculated according to the ratio between the cost and the benefit that can be obtained from the action, in this case going to vote (1) and going to vote for that party rather than this one (2). The importance of symbolic politics is especially capitalized on by the intensity directional models. For Lazarsfeld, we think politically how we are socially, there is not really the idea of electoral choice. The theory of partisan competition was completely eliminated by the other types of explanations. Iversena proposed a way of classifying the different explanatory theories of voting that allow to add a very important element that has been neglected until now. (PDF) Analysis of Vote Behavior in Election - ResearchGate Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller. The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. In the study of electoral behaviour, there is a simple distinction between what is called prospective voting and retrospective voting. These theories are called spatial theories of the vote because they are projected. This model has given rise to the spatial theories of voting which are the dominant theories. That discounting depends on where the policy is right now in relation to what the party is promising, and that is the directional element. According to Downs, based on the prospective assessment that voters make of the position that voters have and their position on various issues, voters arrive at and operate this shortcut by situating and bringing parties back to an ideological dimension that may be a left-right dimension but may also be another one. Thus, voters will vote for candidates who are in the direction (1) and who are going in that direction in the most intense way (2), that is, who propose policies going in that direction in the strongest and most intense way. the further a party moves in the same direction as the voter, the more likely it is to be chosen by that voter. The publication of The American Voter in 1960 revolutionized the study of American voting behavior. 43 17 It's believed that the social class was the most accurate indicator of likely voting intention Often identified as School of Columbia, it focuses on the influences of social factors and voting. The behavior results either in support for political candidates or parties or abstention from the voting process. Weba new model of legislative behavior that captures when and how lawmakers vote differently than expected. the difference in the cost-benefit ratio that different parties give. it is an element of direction and not an element of distance or proximity that counts. Its weak explanatory power has been criticized, and these are much more recent criticisms in the sense that we saw when we talked about class voting in particular, which from then on saw the emergence of a whole series of critics who said that all these variables of social position and anchoring in social contexts may have been explanatory of participation and voting at the time these theories emerged in the 1950s, but this may be much less true today in a phase or period of political misalignment. Is partisan identification one-dimensional? For example, a strongly conservative voter who votes Democratic may vote Republican because he or she feels more in tune with the party. The Logics of Electoral Politics. Voting is an instrument that serves us to achieve an objective. how does partisan identification develop? It was this model that proposed that abstention can be the result of a purely rational calculation. Some pollsters have employed other kinds of variables in their likely voter models, including demographic characteristics, partisanship and ideology. The psycho-sociological model also developed a measure called the partisan identification index, since this model wanted to be an empirical model with behaviourism and the idea of studying individual behaviours empirically with the development of national election studies and survey data to try to measure the partisan identification index. WebPsychological Models of American Voting Behavior* DAVID KNOKE, Indiana University ABSTRACT A path model of the presidential vote involving social variables, party There is in fact the idea that the choices and preferences of voters in the centre will cause the parties, since they are aiming in this model, to try to maximize their electoral support. This diagram shows the process of misalignment with changes in the generational structure and changes in the social structure that create political misalignment. There is little room for context even though there are more recent developments that try to put the voter's freedom of choice in context. There is this curvilinear disparity because the three actors position themselves differently. From the point of view of parties and candidates, the economic model and in particular the model that was proposed by Downs in 1957 and which predicts a convergence of a party position towards the centre. Lazarsfeld was the first to study voting behaviour empirically with survey data, based on individual data, thus differentiating himself from early studies at the aggregate level of electoral geography. WebThis article develops and tests a model of voter behavior in a primary election. THE DATA AND MEASUREMENTS Two data sets were used in the model con-struction and estimation, the 1964 and 1968 HUr0c:*+ $ifrh b98ih+I?v1q7q>. We must also, and above all, look at the links between types of factors. This is called retrospective voting, which means that we are not looking at what the parties said in their platforms, but rather at what the parties did before. The idea of the directional model, and this applies to both the simple directional model and the intensity directional model, is that voters basically cannot clearly perceive the different positions of political parties or candidates on a specific issue. The psychological and socio-economic model are strongly opposed, offering two explanations that are difficult to reconcile, even though there have been efforts to try to combine them. We leave behind the idea of spatial theories that preferences are exogenous, that they are pre-existing and almost fixed. At the aggregate level, the distribution of partisan identification in the electorate makes it possible to calculate the normal vote. When the voter is in the same position, i.e. There are different strategies that are studied in the literature. preferences and positions. Of course, there have been attempts to assess the explanatory power of directional models, but according to these researchers, these spatial models were designed to be purely theoretical in order to highlight on a purely theoretical level what motivations voters may have for their electoral choice. In other words, party activists tend to be more extreme in their political attitudes than voters or party leaders. Survey ndings on voters motivations are, in fact, broadly consistent with rational models of voting (see Section 4.3). His conclusion is that the vote is explained both by elements of leadership, partly by an element of proximity and distance, but also, for some parties, it must also be taken into account that there are parties that act according to a mobilization of the electorate according to the approach of Przeworski and Sprague. It is an answer that remains faithful to the postulates of Downs' theory and the proximity model. This idea of an issue was not invented by the proponents of the economic model of voting but was already present in the psycho-sociological model. Finally, in a phase of misalignment, this would be the economic model, since there is a loss of these partisan loyalties, so these voters become more and more reactive to political events and therefore may be more rational in their decision-making process. The idea that one identifies oneself, that one has an attitude, an attachment to a party was certainly true some forty years ago and has become less and less true and also the explanatory power of this variable is less important today even if there are significant effects. There is an idea of interdependence between political supply and demand, between parties and voters, which is completely removed from other types of explanations. These models describe how humans react to environmental factors and choose between different courses of action. If we do not accept the idea that actors will vote according to their assessment of certain issues, to be more precise, according to their assessment of the position that the various parties have on certain issues, if we do not understand that, we cannot understand the spatial theories of voting either. The idea is that each voter can be represented by a point in a hypothetical space and this space can be a space with N dimensions and each dimension represents an election campaign issue, so that this point reflects his or her ideal set of policies, i.e. The spatial theory of the vote postulates that the electoral choice is made in the maximization of individual utility. It is interesting to know that Lazarsfeld, when he began his studies with survey data, especially in an electoral district in New York State, was looking for something other than the role of social factors. As this is the first model that wanted to study empirically and test hypotheses on the basis of survey data, it was necessary to develop conceptual tools, in particular the political predisposition index, which focuses on three types of social affiliations that are fundamental in this perspective to explain electoral choices, namely social status, religion and place of residence. It's believed that the social class was the most accurate indicator of likely voting intention. Hinich and Munger say the opposite, saying that on the basis of their idea of the left-right positioning of the parties, they somehow deduce what will be or what is the position of these parties on the different issues. The basic assumptions of the economic model of the vote are threefold: selfishness, which is the fact that voters act according to their individual interests and not according to their sense of belonging to a group or their attachment to a party. What determines direction? If we take into account Przeworski and Sprague's idea that there can be a mobilization of the electorate in a logic of endogenous preference and non-maximization of the utility of voters. That is what is called the proximity vote, that is, having a preference over a policy. If certain conditions are present, such as good democratic functioning within the party, activists will have the opportunity to exercise "voice" and influence positions. WebThe Columbia model describes the influence of socialization on decision-making about whether to vote or not, and who to vote for; in this way, it highlights the importance of social integration as a motivating element for political participation. Mitt Romney's gonna lower their taxes, so they're gonna vote for them, and to be clear, it's not that everyone's behavior The first answer is that basically, they vote according to their position, according to their social characteristics or according to their socialization, which refers to the sociological model. The degree of political sophistication, political knowledge, interest in politics varies from voter to voter. There is no real electoral choice in this type of explanation, but it is based on our insertion in a social context. 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